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Your Expiration Date is a Mortality Experience
My hammock is falling apart.
The cotton ropes have either broken or are frayed enough to break any minute. This has created a risk that I’ll end up on the cement pad under it. Since that could really hurt, I plan to replace it. But how good a hammock should I buy? There are a lot of options.
I told Catherine I want one that uses polyester rope because it should last longer. She reminded me that my cotton rope hammock has lasted 30 years.
“Why do you need one that lasts longer than that?” she asked. “How long do you expect to live?” It was another head bob reminder to beware the calendar. I hate it when she’s right.
And then I did what anyone who suddenly faces another reminder of their inevitable expiration date would do. I searched online to see how much time I have left. In 30 years, I’ll be 99.
The Social Security Administration provides actuarial tables where you can see how your age group measures up to Americans of all other ages. It shows the “mortality experience of a population,” which sounds as if they interviewed people who have died.
“We’re from the SSA, collecting data for our statistics. How was your mortality experience when you died at age 76?” OK, so they can’t actually do this. They count you as another statistic as you pass through the door to the great beyond.
Longevity Meets Reality
According to the latest chart, I have 14 years left. 14! I know these tables are based on averages. So, if I’m lucky, I’ll live longer than 14 years. You know – good genes and clean living. If I am genetically deprived or live with reckless abandon, it might be less than that. What’s really great is, if I do make it to 99, I get three more years of expected longevity. Bonus! And if I make it to 119, I still have almost a year to live. No matter how old you are, the SSA doesn’t expect you to die tomorrow.
Remember, these actuarial values are for someone born exactly on January 1 of that year. They are the values used when age and longevity need to be considered for things like insurance and legal documents.
If I’m reading this correctly, the expected longevity for a given age has increased as a long-term trend. The oldest data available showed that a 69-year-old in 2004 had only 13.93 years left. It bounced around 15 for a few years, then reached 15.28 in 2019 before dropping to 14.24 in 2020. That’s more than a year of longevity lost, due almost directly to COVID-19 which killed more than a million Americans.
In the latest table, my chances of dying within the year are .025357. That’s less than three deaths in every 100,000 lives. Pretty good odds. But just for that year, not every year. If you are 100 now, you have a life expectancy of two years with odds of dying this year at about one in three.
It was noted on TV news that the presidential debates are early this election season, the first one scheduled for June. Another news pundit replied, “Well, they’re not getting any younger.” Biden will be 81 at the time of the election. Trump will be 78. According to the latest table, Biden has 7.43 years left. Trump has 8.95. That’s more than enough years left for each of them to complete a second four-year term. It’s worth noting that more than 50% of their age group populations have died.
Check That Expiration Date
So far, all of this diatribe has focused on our life expectancies, our expiration dates. But what about the expiration dates of other things? The other day I was looking in the fridge for a can of quick ‘n’ easy rolls (hopefully cinnamon). I found one that was acceptably close.
However, upon closer inspection, the expiration date was in 2023. Well, heck. What else was in there? There were biscuits from 2022 and, I’m ashamed to admit, crescent rolls from 2014. That means those crescent rolls were already years expired before we brought them with us on our move here seven years ago. I might give Ripley’s Believe It or Not! a call.
We too often make unconscious assumptions about the things we buy. When you buy a new washer and dryer, you don’t think much about ever buying replacements for them some day. You don’t even think about regular maintenance. What for? They’re new! Cars, homes, whatever. Everything wears out, expires, atrophies.
How long things last shouldn’t be a huge concern as you get up in age unless you’re trying to have them all wear out just as you die, like the old grandfather’s clock. Conversely you could finance some expensive new things to enjoy just before you go, leaving the bills for your kids to fight over.
After all this, I’ve decided to order the better hammock, the one that should get me to at least 100. I’ll confess to Catherine when I’m 90.